The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports

Admittedly, living in San Diego we’re spoiled. Summer afternoons at the beach-side Del Mar racetrack provide sights and sounds which don’t naturally (or in a plastic surgeon’s office) occur at other racing venues. Along with Saratoga’s (New York) summer meet, these two tracks are the premier racing venues in the country, only rivaled by the sports biggest racing days like: Breeder’s Cup and the Triple Crown races.

Saturday, the 20 top-earning three-year-olds will break from the gates at Churchill Downs in the 136^th running of the Kentucky Derby. In the weeks leading up to the race, it appeared on paper that there would be a classic showdown of superstars: Eskendereya from the East and Lookin At Lucky from the West. Eskendereya easily won the Wood Memorial and Florida Derby to establish him as the deserving favorite. Lookin At Lucky was a nose-loser in the Breeders Cup Juvenile before winning the Rebel Stakes and finishing 3^rd in the Santa Anita Derby which looked more like a demolition derby than a horse race.

Unfortunately, as happened last year with favorite I Want Revenge, Eskendereya has been withdrawn from contention at the last minute due to some minor swelling in his front-left leg. This leaves three-time Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert’s Lookin At lucky as a heavy favorite in a field featuring many surprise, long-odds, prep race winners such as: #2 - Ice Box (Florida Derby), #5 - Line of David (Arkansas Derby) and #6 - Stately Victor (Blue Grass), #7 - American Lion (Illinois Derby) and #14 - Mission Impazible (Louisiana Derby).

Of course, Eskendereya’s trainer Todd Pletcher still has a stable of respectable runners who will try and end his 0-for-24 drought in his previous attempts at the Run for the Roses lead by the talented filly Devil May Care (#11) who attempts to follow in the hoof prints of fellow female runners Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra who have taken much of the racing spotlight from the boys this past year.

The race appears to be loaded with speed horses, which often dictates that many will tire out each other up front and set-up the race for a closer to pass all the tired horses in the stretch. Santa Anita Derby winner and likely second-choice, Sidney’s Candy, owned by diet-guru Jenny Craig, will try and get a good stalking trip behind the leaders and will get first chance to pounce on the leaders as they turn for home. At that point, Garrett Gomez will have Lookin At Lucky rolling from mid-pack and these two should pull clear of the field with 1/8^th of a mile to go and go on to stave off closers like: Stately Victor, Dublin (#17) , Awesome Act (#16), Paddy O’Prado (#10), Backtalk (#18) and Make Music for Me (#9).

Wednesday’s post position draw wasn’t kind to the two favorites. Lookin At Lucky drew the dreaded rail which has produced 12 Derby winners (tied for most with #5) but puts horses without natural speed in a bad position as 19 other 2-year-olds are compacting toward the rail as quickly as possible to not be forced wide into the first turn. Second choice Sidney’s Candy didn’t fare much better. He’s marooned outside in the #20 gate and will have to exert extra energy out of the gate to get to his preferred stalking position just off the rail.

Recent Derby history has taught us one thing … that anything can happen. In the past five years, two winners have been the betting favorites: Big Brown (2008) and Street Sense (2007). On the flip-side, two other winners paid over $100.00 on a $2 win bet: Mine That Bird (2009) and Giacomo (2005). Jockey Calvin Borel has won two the past three and rides 15-1 shot Super Saver (#4). What does that mean? Well, if you’re someone who studies the numbers and charts for hours you seem to have about the same chance of betting the winner as someone who picks a catchy name, lucky number or the prettiest horse or silks.

When “the most exciting two minutes in sports” is taking place at Churchill Downs a little after 6:15pm on Saturday, you may as well get a little practice in case you’re Buzztime’s big winner of the Opening Day tickets to Del Mar. Where’s your $25 fantasy dollars invested in the Derby?

I’ll take a $2 trifecta (cost: $24) –

1^st: Lookin At Lucky

2^nd: American Lion, Super Saver and Sidney’s Candy

3^rd: Super Saver, Homeboykris, Devil May Care and Conveyance

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